(P05-009-23) Estimating the Market Share of Branded and Unbranded Staple Foods Using Secondary and Primary Data Sources: Implications for Monitoring Fortification Programs

Objectives: Understanding the market structure and distribution of staple foods is essential to identify channels that are amenable to fortification and that can be leveraged to deliver micronutrients to a large proportion of a micronutrient deficient population.

We sought to develop a scalable and low-cost model that can be periodically updated through available data sources to generate disaggregated food market volume estimates and applied it to edible oil.

Methods: We conducted a search for market data of key staples foods in Nigeria in 2021. Readily available and routinely updated data sources were prioritized and a previously conducted primary market research conducted in 2021 in 3700 retail outlets across regions in Nigeria assessing the degree of oil penetration at brand product level was included. Data were compiled to disaggregate the total oil market supply across segments such as imports, local production, exports and waste, channels for domestic consumption such as industrial use, food processing, government procurement/feed, retail and foodservice, food types, packaged and unpackaged products.

Results: From a total edible oil supply of 2,586,000MT in Nigeria, 2,408,000MT are consumed locally, and 1,096,170MT via retail. The disaggregated retail volume showing geographic availability of imported and locally produced products identified 5 large local producers with their respective products that supply 60% of the retail volume with a wide availability across regions. While unpacked products are available across larger cities as well as smaller towns and trading centers, they make up a small share of the retail volume ( < 5%).

Conclusions: Publicly available and routinely updated data sources can be used to characterize the food market and identify channels and points of intervention that reach a wide range or geographically targeted consumers. In this example, the data model can also be used to prioritize fortification program monitoring. The market volume estimates generated by the model can also be used to extrapolate fortification quality assessed from food samples collected by regulators, program implementers and/or researchers to generate reliably weighted data on availability of added nutrients.

Funding Sources: Bill and Melinda Gates foundation