(P05-010-23) Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax Policy in South Korea: A Simulation Study

Objectives: Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) is linked to weight gain, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD). SSB taxes are a policy tool to reduce intake and over 50 countries have implemented taxes on SSBs. Yet, little is known about health and economic impact and cost-effectiveness of SSB tax in South Korea.

Methods: A cohort-state transition model simulated 32 subgroups by age, sex, and hypertension treatment and estimated CVD cases prevented, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), health-related costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of SSB tax (volume tax). Model inputs included national demographic and dietary data from KNHANES 2019-2021; policy effects on consumer intake, SSB-disease effects from meta-analyses; policy implementation costs, and formal healthcare costs from established sources. Findings were evaluated over a lifetime, and costs and QALYs discounted at 3% annually.

Results: From a government perspective, a volume-based SSB tax design was cost-saving, compared to a base-case scenario. Over a lifetime, the SSB tax would prevent 3,205 CVD events and 8,113 CVD deaths and gain 11,371 QALYs, generate $2.21bn tax revenue. From a healthcare perspective, the SSB tax was highly cost-effective with ICER of $5,566/QALY. In subgroup analyses, the projected health and economic benefits were larger among younger adults and men.

Conclusions: Implementing a volume-based SSB tax would generate substantial health gains and be highly cost-effective for the Korean population.

Funding Sources: This work was supported by a National Research Foundation of Korea grant.